MD Sen Steele leading Cardin SUSA Poll

In Maryland, Senate Race Now Deadlocked

In Maryland's U.S. Senate race, a new SurveyUSA poll finds Ben Cardin (D) and Michael Steele (R) in a statistical tie, with Steele holding a 48% to 47% edge that's well within the survey's margin of error.

Key finding: Steele, who is black, gets 54% of white vote and 33% of the black vote, more than twice the support among blacks than fellow Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) in his race for governor.

Meanwhile, in the gubernatorial race, Martin O'Malley (D) leads Ehrlich by 7 points, 51% to 44%

I have said before that I think Steele will lose.  As a 20 year Maryland voter, it would be earth shattering news if we elected a GOP Senator.  I can't imagine it.

However, this poll shows that Cardin is going to have a tough time with African American voters and the Maryland Dem Party has lost its traditional hold on the African American vote.  

This is a direct result of the way that Mfume was treated by the Dem party insiders.  He was dismissed from day one and shut out of fundraising.  The Mfume rumors were pushed as hard by dems as they were by the gop.  

Yet he still came within 2 points (losing by 13,000 votes out of 565,000 cast) of winning.  Not a bad showing considering.

The poll suggests that the Mfume dem vote will not automatically go to Cardin.  I don't think it will ever be enough to put Steele over the top but I do think it hurts our state party tremendously.